Where will Nifty go from here? 6 analysts try to guesstimate

Where will Nifty go from here? 6 analysts try to guesstimate

Domestic equities started the new week on a negative note. Nifty lost 230 points (-1.5%) on Monday to close at 14,638 while Sensex tanked 871 points (-1.7%) to end at 49,159.

Broader markets also turned weak with Nifty MidCap 100 slipping 1.3% and Nifty Smallcap Index 1.5%. Bajaj Finance,

, SBI, Eicher Motors and M&M were the top losers in the Nifty pack, while HCL tech, TCS, Wipro, Britannia and Infosys sailed against the wind and ended as top gainers.

IT (+2%) and Metals (+0.9%) counters remained strong and closed in the green while Pharma (-0.4%), Infrastructure (-1.4%), Energy (-1.5%), FMCG (-1.6%), Banking (-3.5%), Financials (-3.3%), Auto (-2.5%) and Media (-3%) all closed in the red.

Technically, Nifty formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating overall weakness, but some support-based buying emerged on sharp declines. Analysts said the index now has to cross and hold above the 14,700 level to witness a bounce towards the 14,850-15,000 zone, while on the downside, support exists in the 14,450-14,300 zone.

The market breadth was negative at 1: 2. India VIX shot up 6.2% from 19.98 to 21.21 levels, as selling pressure emerges at higher levels.

What’s in store on Tuesday?
Are we going to see more weakness, or shall we see a rebound? Six seasoned analysts try to second-guess where the market may head from here.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research,
Motilal Services

Going ahead, Indian market is likely to track global cues after the recent announcement of infrastructure investment plan by the US President. Further investors would now focus on upcoming quarterly results which would kick start from mid-April. Domestically, concerns over the fast spreading 2nd wave of Covid in India continues to remain. Economic activities might take a hit due to partial lockdowns and markets would react accordingly in coming weeks. Overall, the market is likely to remain in a consolidative mode for some time awaiting for fresh positive triggers. Hence investors would do well by gradually accumulating good quality companies on any declines in the market.

Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President,
Kotak Securities

Breaking all the important support, the market went back to 14,450/48,580 levels and came back. For the last 20 days, 14,450/48,580 levels have been working as an important base. From now on, the 14,450/48,580 levels would act as a trend decider. The market may return to around 14,450/48,580 or 14,500/48,800 levels, as Monday’s fall was severe. The 14,670/49,300 and 14,730/49,500 levels will be major obstacles and it is advisable to reduce weak long positions around the same. Trends above 14,900/50,100 can be subverted. You need to stay stock specific for a few days.

Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Analyst,
HDFC Securities

Nifty’s short-term trend remains rangebound around 14,900-14,400 levels. The pattern of selling at resistance and buying at support continued in the market. Current daily and intraday chart setup signals chances of yet another upside bounce towards 14,900 level in the short term, before showing another round of weakness from the highs. The intraday resistance is now placed at 14,700.

Aditya Agarwala, Senior Technical Analyst,
YES Securities

The bulls need to push Nifty above 14,700 level in the coming sessions for an extension of the short-covering rally to 14,750-14,800 levels. However, a failure to push it beyond 14,700 could cause a resumption of the corrections and drag Nifty lower to 14,550-14,450 levels. Broadly, Nifty50 continues to oscillate in a wide range between 14,330 and 14,300 levels on the downside and 14,850 and 14,900 levels on the upside. A successful close beyond 14,900 level would resume the uptrend.

Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst,
LKP Securities

The overall market structure still looks one of narrow consolidation, as the index retreated from around 14,900 level for the third time on the hourly charts and there was good profit booking from the same level. Now if Nifty manages to sustain below 14,700 level, then we may see the next move towards its previous swing low of 14,300, and if it manages to hold above 14,700 level, then it might trigger a relief rally.

Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research,
CapitalVia Global Research

The market failed to show resilience to keep Nifty50 above the 14,800 mark. While it is subject to further price action, the technical factors are aligned to support a short-term consolidation in the near future. The market is expected to attempt a breakout above the 14,900 level by mid April. Any corrective wave down should find support around 14,400 level. As such, traders are advised to refrain from building a fresh buying position until Nifty witnesses a correction to the 14,400 level or sees a breakout above 14,900. A spike in volatility on Monday is indicating profit booking and distribution of stocks at a higher market level.

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