SGX Nifty down 75 points; here’s what changed for market while you were sleeping

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SGX Nifty down 75 points; here's what changed for market while you were sleeping


Stocks in most Asian markets climbed this morning as treasuries clawed back some losses, but the trade setup looked weak on Dalal Street after the Maharashtra government’s decision to bring in stricter curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus.

That said, here’s what will drive the market during the day.

STATE OF THE MARKETS
Here’s breaking down the pre-market actions.

SGX Nifty signals weak start
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 74 points, or half a per cent, lower at 14,918 in signs that Dalal Street was heading for a weak start on Monday

Tech View: Nifty eyes 14,900 level
At close, the index stood above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages and nullified the Bearish Belt Hold pattern formed in the previous session. Analysts advised traders not to read much into the moving averages in a sideways market, but believe a breach of the 14,900 level could bring the bulls back into the game.

Some Asian markets show strength
Stocks in other Asian markets climbed this morning as investors weighed the sustainability of the latest selloff in bonds. A regional gauge edged higher. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.8% but Korea’s Kospi looked weak. Markets are closed in China, Hong Kong and Australia for the Easter break.

US stocks settled higher on Friday
The S&P 500 rose 46.98 to 4,019.87. The index’s latest all-time high is its second in seven days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 171.66 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 33,153.21. The technology-heavy Nasdaq climbed 233.23 points, or 1.8 per cent, to 13,480.11.

DIIs sell Rs 297 crore worth of stocks

Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 149.41 crore, data available with NSE suggested. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 297 crore, data suggests.

Nifty getting more broadbased
The Nifty is taking on a pronouncedly more democratic texture – evident in the recent performance of its constituents. So, how secular – and broad-based – is this progress of democracy? The Nifty 50 Equal weight index—with equal weights assigned to all constituents—has been consistently outperforming the benchmark Nifty 50 index based on market cap weights this past year.

FIIs, HNIs cover bearish bets in Bank Nifty
Foreign institutions and some rich investors covered a sizeable portion of their cumulative bearish bets on Bank Nifty futures on April 1, driving the active index futures contract up 2%, but its underperformance to the broader Nifty could continue until these market constituents desist from adding fresh longs on the index. Analysts attribute Bank Nifty’s underperformance to FIIs and HNIs shorting amid concerns of rising bad loans for banks after the Supreme Court refused to interfere with the govt and RBI’s moratorium policy as sought by trade associations and industry.

MONEY MARKETS

Rupee: The rupee on Wednesday closed higher by 26 paise at 73.12 against the US dollar on Wednesday and ended the fiscal on a strong note with a gain of over 3 per cent despite coronavirus-induced disruptions on the economic front. : Forex markets remained shut on Thursday for the annual closing of banks and on Friday on account of Good Friday.

10-year bonds: India 10-year bond yield rose 0.55 per cent to 6.17 after trading in 6.14-6.18 range.

Call rates: The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.22 per cent, according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.90-3.50 per cent.

DATA/EVENTS TO WATCH

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI Final MAR (06:00 am)
  • India Markit Manufacturing PMI MAR (10.30 am)
  • US Markit Composite PMI Final MAR (07.15 pm)
  • US Markit Services PMI Final MAR (07.15 pm)
  • US Factory Orders MoM FEB (07:30 pm)
  • IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

MACROS

I-T to check capital gains directly
Beginning this financial year, the income tax department will have direct access to details of capital gains made, dividends received and interest earned by investors, which is expected to plug under reporting or non-declaration of such income. A notification issued by the I-T department on March 12 has included stock exchanges, depositories, clearing corporations and registrars to an issue and share transfer agents among intermediaries that will be required to submit information on capital gains made on listed securities and mutual funds.

Maha curbs loom over markets
The recent strength in the stock market could face a bump in the wake of the Maharashtra government’s decision on Sunday to bring in stricter curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus. Analysts expect a weak opening on Monday as a big chunk of the surge in coronavirus cases in the country has been coming from the state but losses could be limited unless other states follow suit on the lockdown. Last week, Jefferies’ chief global strategist, Christopher Wood, had said Indian stocks are not priced in for renewed lockdowns. JP Morgan too had warned in a note that the government may be forced to impose lockdowns if the number of cases continues to rise sharply.

RBI may keep money policy unchanged
RBI is expected to keep unchanged this week the broader interest rates and its accommodative monetary stance to nurture a fragile economic recovery amid the return of partial mobility curbs to contain the spread of the coronavirus. But investors would need clarity in communication from Governor Shaktikanta Das on his agenda for the bond markets, which have lately been roiled by hardening yields. New curbs on businesses, potentially slowing economic activity, and a surge in commodity prices that could cause an inflationary spiral pose challenges to the Monetary Policy Committee, which has been tasked with keeping the Consumer Price Index in the 2-6% range for another five years.

Worst not over for auto industry
The swift recovery in the personal vehicle segment in FY21 was a singular event that did not translate to the other automotive segments, indicating that the worst is not over yet for an industry that is still reeling under the hard impact of Covid-19. As the two important segments of the automobile industry – two-wheeler and commercial vehicle segments — failed to keep pace with the passenger vehicle segment, the overall automotive market that accounts for 8% of the GDP is now back to its FY15 level.

RBI may transfer more cash to govt
RBI could still transfer a higher surplus to North Block through the unlocking of unrealised gains on currency value and diversification of its forex assets base even as record reserves, which otherwise helped ensure macroeconomic stability, dented its income. Interest earnings had also shrunk after banks parked more surplus cash with Mint Road. Yet, the central bank could encash the valuation gains in currency reserves. Valuation gains amounted to $23 billion during April-December 2020, compared with $6.3 billion in the same period in 2019.

Govt plans notice to Cairn
The oil ministry will seek tens of millions of dollars from Vedanta’s Cairn Oil & Gas after the Delhi high court held that the firm was liable to pay higher profit share to the government in lieu of its Rajasthan oil and gas block licence being extended beyond initial term, a top official said. In the interim, the firm’s Barmer basin block licence, whose initial 25-year term ended on May 15, 2020, has been given an eighth interim extension, the official, who wished not to be identified, said.

Spike in risk capital flow to startups
A series of large financing rounds for some of India’s best-known startups including Byju’s, Dream11, Udaan and Zomato has propelled the flow of risk capital into the sector to a high of $3.65 billion in the last quarter of fiscal year 2021, marking an increase by over one-tenth from a year ago when funding had touched $3.22 billion, data sourced by ET shows.

SBI home loan now at 6.95%
The country’s largest lender SBI has said on its website that its home loan rates will start from 6.95%, effective April 1. Last month, the public sector bank had announced a special offer valid till March 31, wherein home loans were available starting from 6.7%. This indicates that the best rate for home loans has increased by 25 basis points. According to SBI’s website, home loans are available at 40bps above the external benchmark-linked rate (EBLR). The EBLR, which is linked to the RBI’s repo rate, is currently 6.65%, which would mean that home loans are available at 7%.



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